Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
